By Elizabeth Sitotombe

WHO will be the next Pope? The decision could have a profound impact on the Catholic Church and the world’s 1,4 billion baptised Roman Catholics. It also promises to be a highly unpredictable and open process for a host of reasons. The College of Cardinals will meet in conclave in the Sistine Chapel to debate and then vote for their preferred candidates until a single name prevails. With 80 percent of the cardinals appointed by Pope Francis himself, they are not only electing a pope for the first time, but will offer a broad global perspective.

For the first time in history, fewer than half of those given a vote will be European. And although the college may be dominated by his appointments, they were not exclusively ‘progressive’ or ‘traditionalist’. For those reasons, it is harder than ever to predict who will be elected the next Pope. Could the cardinals elect an African or an Asian pope, or might they favour one of the old hands of the Vatican administration? As the Vatican prepares for the conclave to elect his successor, two African cardinals Peter Turkson of Ghana and Robert Sarah of Guinea, have emerged as potential candidates. Their rise coincides with a critical moment for the Church, where its fastest growing congregation is in Africa, yet its past is stained by its involvement in colonialism and the transatlantic slave trade.

This begs the question: Can Africa trust a Church that once sanctioned its oppression? And if a black Pope is elected, will he serve African interests or merely advance a pro-West agenda? Despite his reputation as a humble ‘Pope of the People’, Pope Francis leaves behind a personal net worth of nearly US$16 million despite never drawing a formal salary as the Pope since his election in 2013, according to the Economic Times. This revelation is telling and many followers of the faith, particularly in Africa, where many struggle with poverty have a right to question how a man who preached simplicity could amass such wealth? This hypocrisy is not new. The Catholic Church has long been entangled with power and money it owns vast real estate holdings. But its darkest financial sin was its direct involvement in slavery.

The Catholic Church’s role in slavery and colonialism

In the 15th century, the Vatican issued papal bulls that authorised the enslavement of Africans and the seizure of their lands. Pope Nicholas V’s Dum Diversas (1452) and Pope Alexander VI’s Inter Caetera (1493) declared that non-Christians could be captured, enslaved, and exploited. These decrees laid the moral foundation for the transatlantic slave trade, which saw millions of Africans brutalised for European profit. The Church was not just complicit no, it was in fact an active participant. Catholic missionaries accompanied colonisers, justifying subjugation in the name of ‘civilizing’ Africans. In Zimbabwe, missionaries like John Moffat manipulated King Lobengula, paving the way for British colonisation. The same Church that preached human dignity was also the largest slaveholder in the Americas, with Catholic institutions owning millions of enslaved black people.

The Church’s shifting Stance on homosexuality and African resistance

Pope Francis’s tenure saw a softening of the Church’s stance on homosexuality, despite fierce resistance from African Catholics. He allowed blessings for gay couples, a move that angered many African bishops many of whom have since resigned. Pope Francis said in an interview with an Italian newspaper La Stampa early last year that Africans were a ‘special case’ in the opposition of bishops and many other people in the continent to homosexuality. “A special case are Africans: for them homosexuality is something ‘bad’ from a cultural point of view, they don’t tolerate it.” He went on to state that he was conf ident that, except for Africans, critics of his decision to allow blessings for same-sex couples would eventually understand it. Cardinal Robert Sarah, a conservative African contender for the papacy, has been a vocal opponent of these reforms, arguing that they undermine traditional values.

Meanwhile, Cardinal Peter Turkson has taken to criticising harsh anti-LGBTQ laws in Africa while still upholding Church doctrine. Africa is now the Church’s most devout region, yet many Africans see Western-backed LGBTQ advocacy as another form of cultural imperialism akin to the colonial-era imposition of Christianity. If an African Pope is elected, will he truly represent African interests or will he be a puppet for Western agendas? Barack Obama, the first black US president, was celebrated in Africa, yet he oversaw the destruction of Libya, one of the continent’s most prosperous nations.

The Selous Scouts in Rhodesia were given equal pay with white soldiers but only so they could more effectively kill their own people. US’ first black ambassador to Zimbabwe did little to advance African sovereignty, instead aligning with Western powers. Would a black Pope follow a similar script? Or would he challenge the Vatican to atone for its past sins such as reparations for slavery or returning looted artefacts?

Nostradamus’ prophecy and the fear of a ‘black Pope’

Adding to the intrigue is Nostradamus’ cryptic prediction of a black Pope rising during a time of turmoil: Many believe the famed French astrologer’s book, Les Prophéties, published in 1555, predicted the death and succession of Pope Francis. “From the depths of the West of Europe, A young child will be born of poor people,  In the final persecution of the Holy Roman Church,  There will sit Peter the Roman…”  Some interpret this as a warning of a black Pope presiding over the Church’s decline.

Others see it as a sign of renewal. But given the Vatican’s history, Africans have reason to be sceptical. But Africa must remember its history as the Catholic Church’s future hangs in the balance, Africa must not forget its past. The same institution that blessed slavery now depends on African congregations for growth. If a black Pope is elected, he must do more than wear the robes of power he must demand justice. Will the next Pope acknowledge the Church’s crimes? Will he resist Western pressure on issues like homosexuality? Or will he be another figure, used to legitimise a new era of exploitation? Africa must decide whether to reclaim its faith or break free from the Church’s shadow once and for all.

. . and the candidates are: Fridolin Ambongo Besungu Nationality: Congolese; Age: 65

It’s very possible the next Pope could be from Africa, where the Catholic Church continues to add millions of members. Cardinal Ambongo is a leading candidate, hailing from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

He has been Archbishop of Kinshasa for seven years, and was appointed cardinal by Pope Francis. He is a cultural conservative, opposing blessings for same-sex marriage, stating that “unions of persons of the same sex are considered contradictory to cultural norms and intrinsically evil”. Though Christianity is the majority religion in the DRC, Christians there have faced death and persecution at the hands of jihadist group Islamic State and associated rebels. Against that backdrop, Cardinal Ambongo is viewed as a fierce advocate for the Church. But in a 2020 interview, he spoke in favour of religious plurality, saying: “Let Protestants be Protestants and Muslims be Muslims. We are going to work with them. But everyone has to keep their own identity.” Such comments could lead some cardinals to wonder if he fully embraces their sense of mission — in which Catholics hope to spread the Church’s word throughout the world.

Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson Nationality: Ghanaian; Age: 76

If chosen by his peers, the influential Cardinal Turkson would likewise have the distinction of being the first African pope for 1 500 years. Like Cardinal Ambongo, he has claimed not to want the job. “I’m not sure whether anyone does aspire to become a Pope,” he told the BBC in 2013. Asked if Africa had a good case to provide the next pope based on the Church’s growth on the continent, he said he felt the pope shouldn’t be chosen based on statistics, because “those types of considerations tend to muddy the waters”. He was the first Ghanaian to be made a cardinal, back in 2003 under Pope John Paul II. Like Cardinal Tagle, Cardinal Turkson was considered a potential Pope a decade later, when Francis was chosen.

In fact, bookmakers made him the favourite ahead of voting. A guitarist who once played in a funk band, Cardinal Turkson is known for his energetic presence. Like many cardinals from Africa, he leans conservative. However, he has opposed the criminalisation of gay relationships in African countries including his native Ghana. In a BBC interview in 2023, while Ghana’s Parliament was discussing a Bill imposing harsh penalties on LGBTQ+ people, Turkson said he felt homosexuality should not be treated as an offence. In 2012, he was accused of making fear-mongering predictions over the spread of Islam in Europe at a Vatican conference of bishops, for which he later apologised.

Robert Sarah Nationality: Guinean; Age: 79

Well-liked by conservatives in the Church, Cardinal Sarah is known for his adherence to doctrine and traditional liturgy and was often considered opposed to Pope Francis’s reformist leanings. The son of a fruit-picker, Sarah became the youngest archbishop aged 34 when Pope John Paul II appointed him prelate in Conakry in Guinea. He has had a long and impressive career, retiring in 2021 as head of the Vatican’s office that oversees the Catholic Church’s liturgical rites. While not considered a favourite for the papacy, he could attract strong support from conservative cardinals.